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Last Quarter Was The Bottom Of This Real Estate Cycle.

February 22, 2007

As we all know, statistics can be used to prove one's point, whatever the point may be. The same statistics can be manipulated to prove both sides of an argument, even! So, as always, I take things with a grain of salt and so should you. Nevertheless, here I am with a link to some statistics! And so much more... The National Association of Realtors believes we've hit the bottom of the market. Read CNN Money article here. All politics and all real estate is local so who really knows what is going on in Boise? Right here in San Francisco, however, I feel serious signs of revival. For those of you who've been reading this emerging blog, you read my chronicles of homes with 51 offers and other atrocities. Last quarter was the bottom of this cycle. Only history will determine if I'm right. Timing the market (any market) perfectly is nearly impossible. Timing it "close-enough" should be the goal. We are still in a kind-of buyer's market but the tide is turning. Over the long-term and even not-so-long-term, San Francisco is bubble-proof. We have very limited land and very strict zoning policies. If you've ever tried to remodel anything in your home with permits than you know what I'm talking about. This kind of tight market will appreciate over time and will also make your life more stable and affluent if you own your home. (For more info, see the New Rules of Real Estate from Business 2.0.) Even those new construction units lingering on the market will be absorbed and appreciate over time. Construction lags the economy and has done so in almost every real estate cycle. The folks at SocketSite are right to be nervous about all of the new construction but only if the buyer chooses a poorly-built condo, spends more than she or he can afford or wants a quick buy and flip profit.

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