San Francisco home price headlines can be misleading. While the metro shows a slight YoY dip, San Francisco County medians for houses and condos were flat to rising, with big variations by neighborhood and property type. This post breaks down city vs. metro methods, single-month noise, and why rolling windows and sample sizes matter.
Summary
The SF Chronicle highlights a 2.5% YoY decline for the San Francisco metro, but SF County prices were flat to positive.
Citywide medians rose across houses and condos, while neighborhood trends diverged sharply.
Single-month medians and small sample sizes can mislead; rolling windows give a truer signal.
Takeaway: In SF real estate, property type, micro-location, and methodology matter more than metro-wide headlines.
What prompted this look at San Francisco home prices?
The typical home value in the San Francisco metropolitan area saw a 2.5% decline from June 2024 to June 2025, data from real estate listings company Zillow shows. The San Jose metro area remained somewhat hotter, with values rising by just over 1%, but not nearly as competitive as it was last year.
The Bay Area isn't alone. Home values across the West Coast and the Sun Belt are nearly flat or outright declining.
It's a great piece from the Chronicle. But we have some thoughts.
What’s the difference between SF “metro area” and SF “city proper,” and why does it matter?
Metro area stats blend very different markets (e.g., suburban counties + SF city). That can understate or obscure what’s happening within San Francisco County itself.
In June 2025, Zillow data showed the SF metro down 2.5% YoY, while agent-reported SFARMLS data for San Francisco County showed flat to positive growth for both houses and condos.
Citywide results: How did San Francisco County perform?
Citywide (SF city = SF county), medians were up for both houses and condos year over year in June 2025. That’s a different picture than the metro headline and a reminder to match geography and methodology when comparing sources.
San Francisco County, June 2025 vs June 2024 (single-month snapshot)
Property Type
Median Price
YoY
Houses
$1,825,000
+10.61%
Condos
$1,250,000
+11.61%
Neighborhood-level variations: Where are the biggest differences inside San Francisco?
Within San Francisco, the differences become even more pronounced.
San Francisco Neighborhoods, June 2025 vs June 2024 (single-month snapshot)
Property Type
Median Price
YoY
Pacific Heights — All Types
$1,835,000
-13.32%
Pacific Heights — Houses
$6,800,000
+58.14%
Pacific Heights — Condos
$1,780,000
-12.53%
Central Sunset — All Types (no condos)
$1,750,500
+10.79%
Noe Valley — All Types
$1,900,000
-11.63%
Noe Valley — Houses
$2,587,000
-9.23%
Noe Valley — Condos
$1,475,000
+31.70%
Bernal Heights — All Types
$1,559,000
+3.93%
Why can home price numbers be misleading?
Small sample sizes distort results. That +58% jump in Pacific Heights house prices? Only 5 houses sold in each month we compared. One ultra-luxury home sale can skew everything.
Single-month comparisons are unreliable. Noe Valley condos didn't really appreciate 32% year-over-year. Using 6-month rolling averages shows a more realistic 8.28% gain - still strong, but not astronomical.
The takeaway: Always dig deeper than headline numbers. In San Francisco real estate, location and data methodology matter more than broad market trends.
Source and methodology
Data source: SFARMLS agent-reported data for June 2025 vs June 2024, unless otherwise noted.
Comparative context: The SF Chronicle reported a -2.5% YoY change for the SF metro (Zillow). Metro ≠ city proper; geographies and methodologies differ.
FAQ
Is San Francisco’s housing market down year over year? Citywide SF County medians were up YoY for both houses and condos in June 2025; the metro-wide figure spanning around the SF Bay Area was down -2.5%, which is a different geography and methodology.
Why do headlines say the Bay Area is flat or down? Metro aggregates blend multiple counties and property mixes, which can mask SF city-specific strength or neighborhood differences.
Which SF neighborhoods are up or down? Central Sunset showed YoY gains; Noe Valley was mixed (houses down, condos up on a rolling basis); Pacific Heights houses were up sharply on very low sales while condos were down. Always check sample size and the date of data sources.
Are single-month medians reliable? They’re a starting point but can be noisy. We like to use 3–6 month rolling windows to smooth out monthly aberrations. It's also important to check sales counts and review the comp mix.
What’s the best way to set a home price in SF? Use hyperlocal comps by property type, condition, and micro-hood; control for mix; compare price-per-square-foot.
How can MLS data be reconciled with Zillow or other portals? Make sure the comparisons match on geography, time window, and methodology (e.g., median sale vs. value index).
Work With the Best SF Realtors | Danielle Lazier & Vivre Real Estate
Confused, or just curious how these trends map to a specific property or block? We're happy to provide a pricing brief tailored to your property type and micro-hood and backed by the latest market data. Contact us today for a private strategy review. We’d love to help!
More to Explore: San Francisco Neighborhoods
Want to learn more about neighborhoods around SF? Here are a few we think you’ll love.
Noe Valley - Sunny village with Victorian charm and a relaxed small-town feel
Bernal Heights - Bohemian hilltop community with panoramic views and a tight-knit vibe
Mission Dolores - Culturally rich urban hub blending Latin American heritage with art and nightlife
SoMa - Revitalized industrial district with historic warehouses, tech innovation, museums, and urban energy
Are you looking to buy a luxury home or sell your exclusive property? Our top real estate team specializes in luxury condos, estates, and high-end properties. With years of experience navigating the competitive luxury real estate market, we offer personalized guidance every step of the way.
Contact us today for a complimentary consultation. Whether you’re looking for luxury homes for sale or need help listing your exclusive property, our top-rated realtors are here to help. Find your dream home or achieve your sales goals with the best real estate agents!
Stay informed with our twice-monthly email updates, featuring market insights, new listings, and local news. Subscribe to receive the latest in San Francisco luxury real estate and more. We respect your privacy and never share your information.
Probably not. Yet, in our biased opinion, you should definitely sign up for our twice-monthly email for market insights, webinar invites, local news, gorgeous homes, and more. We never share or sell your information. And, when you’re ready to work with us, please email or call to discuss your plans. We’d love to help!
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional
Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
