Just about everywhere you look, the San Francisco turnaround is getting more and more apparent. After years of headlines about doom loops and exodus migration, the city feels like it’s turning a page in 2025.
A few statistics: Crime has dropped to a 23-year low. Office leasing just hit its highest level in six years. The tent count fell to the lowest level since records began. These are just a few of the signs that San Francisco is back on track.
From our SF real estate perspective, let's start with what matters most to homebuyers and investors: safety and livability. As reported by The Telegraph, car break-ins fell by 50% last year in 2024 to a 22-year low. Overall crime fell 28% in 2024. Walk through areas like UN Plaza in the Civic Center, and you'll see ping-pong tables where tent encampments used to be.
The change in San Francisco goes beyond crime reduction. Local organizations like Streets For All San Francisco (formerly KidSafe SF) have spent four years creating safer, more walkable and enjoyable neighborhoods. The organization led the charge to make JFK Promenade permanent, established 16 Slow Streets, and helped to transform the Great Highway into the new Sunset Dunes park.
Anecdotally in our team of top SF Realtors working with buyers and sellers, Contact us today. Clients who were hesitant to consider certain neighborhoods (or maybe buying at all) are more actively exploring their options across the city.
Commercial real estate in San Francisco is also seeing its most significant turnaround in years. Companies like Salesforce now require employees to work at least four days a week in the office. Gap Inc. announced a return to five-day office weeks (among many other companies in SF). But however you feel about RTO mandates, the real story in commercial real estate is artificial intelligence.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes San Francisco is back. "Just about everybody evacuated San Francisco," he said during a recent podcast interview. "Now it's thriving again. It's all because of AI." Nvidia is reportedly hunting for roughly 30,000 square feet of high-end sales office space in San Francisco.
The hype has turned into real movement for commercial properties. AI companies have leased over 5 million square feet in San Francisco in the past five years and are projected to take an additional 16 million square feet between now and 2030, or roughly 2.7 million square feet annually. That would cut the city's office vacancy rate from ~36% currently to less than 18% by 2030.
Another data point in this trend is OpenAI's expansion to nearly 1 million square feet across three buildings in SF. And when workers return to downtown, they need places to live. That demand directly benefits residential real estate across San Francisco neighborhoods.
The San Francisco housing market turnaround reflects this recovery and change in the city. While macroeconomic pressures (tariffs, uncertainty, etc.) are keeping a lid on home sales to an extent, the latest spring 2025 numbers show positive trends on both the buying and selling side.
Looking at agent-reported MLS data, the median home sale price in San Francisco increased by 4% annually during the spring March-May period. Condos, which have been the slower market segment, actually outperformed with 5.7% price growth compared to 4.3% for houses. Condos are also selling faster, with the median days-on-market dropping to 26 days from ~29 last year.
The supply of homes for sale in San Francisco also points to this turnaround. Houses are at just 1.8 months of inventory compared to 3.9 months for condos, but supply is tightening across both segments, down 14% for houses and 20% for condos year-over-year as of May 2025.
The biggest value opportunities are still in urban condo markets like South of Market (SoMa) and South Beach, where roughly six months of supply still exists. ('Months of supply' compares the current number of homes on the market against the current rate of sales - how fast would existing supply sell if there were no new listings?) However, even these markets are tightening. SoMa condo monthly supply dropped 30% year-over-year in May. Condos in more suburban neighborhoods like Noe Valley show just 1.4 months of supply.
None of this happened by accident. Credit goes to organizations like Neighbors for a Better San Francisco (who are a central focus of The Telegraph's article) and the countless local residents who demanded change.
We also appreciate the hard work of Streets For All San Francisco and their campaign since COVID to create safer, more livable streets.
The results have been impressive. Mayor Daniel Lurie, who took office in January 2025, brings a pro-business approach that has generally been well-received. "People wanted to count us out, and I think that was a bad bet. We're seeing all of this because the ecosystem is better here in San Francisco than anywhere else in the world." Agreed.
Current market conditions in SF are creating opportunities across price points and property types. The AI boom adds new demand, as the tech workers and sales staff need housing. Decreasing supply and increasing demand for real estate listings create will upward pressure on prices, although there are still macroeconomic concerns out of any local buyer, seller, or SF Realtor's control. (Try as we might.)
For inspiration from real-life stories of San Francisco homebuyers and sellers, check out our Real Estate Case Studies.
The San Francisco turnaround is happening. Knock on wood, the worst appears behind us, and many of the best opportunities may still be ahead.
If you've been thinking about a change in living arrangements, current trends suggest now is a good time to consider your options and see what aligns with your long-term goals.
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