San Francisco real estate has gone from sluggish to sizzling in a matter of months. After a couple of years moving at a slower pace, our market has emerged as one of the hottest in the country. Homes are selling at speeds we haven't seen since the pandemic boom.
In September 2025, San Francisco homes found buyers after a median of just three weeks on the market, compared to the national average of 51 days. October sales hit their highest count since May 2022, with luxury home sales reaching their best monthly total in four years. Perhaps most striking: 80% of house sales and 44% of condo sales went for over asking price.
This is a dramatic shift from recent years when homes that once sparked bidding wars sat unsold for a month or longer. The market has flipped from buyer-friendly to intensely competitive, going "from 25 mph in recent years to 100 mph in autumn 2025" as industry analysts describe it.
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The AI startup boom has brought an influx of newly wealthy tech workers with cash to spend on homes in San Francisco. Companies like OpenAI have already driven rental demand through the roof, and now homebuyers from these firms are entering the market with substantial resources. We've explored this trend in our posts on How AI is Shaping San Francisco Real Estate and Using Your AI Company Equity to Buy a Home in San Francisco.
At the same time, inventory has plummeted. San Francisco was the only Bay Area county that didn't see inventory increase this fall. As of November 1, active listings were down a third from a year prior. This supply crunch combined with surging demand has created ideal conditions for San Francisco home sellers to command premium prices.
Lower interest rates have helped too. After 30-year mortgage rates hit their lowest point in over a year at the end of October, more buyers felt comfortable making their move. Stock market gains have given affluent buyers additional confidence, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs.
San Francisco stands out from other large US cities, where buyers remain hesitant amid economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates. SF is selling homes faster than almost any of the 25 most populous cities in the country. Even San Jose, typically a highly competitive market, has seen homes take longer to sell compared to San Francisco's accelerating pace.
Not all San Francisco neighborhoods are seeing the same level of heat. Homes on the west side sell fastest, with prices that remained relatively stable throughout the pandemic era. Houses in the Sunset District have been particularly competitive. Meanwhile, downtown and eastern neighborhoods like SoMa and South Beach, where much of the new condo construction has occurred over the past decade, have historically taken longer to sell.
That said, even traditionally slower areas are showing renewed life. Mission Bay, where Uber and OpenAI have offices, has seen a boom in demand from both homeowners wanting to live close to work and investors attracted to San Francisco's rising reputation and rental rates.
For San Francisco home buyers, this market requires speed and decisiveness. Bidding wars have become the norm, with next to nothing available in many desirable areas. Success means being prepared with financing, acting quickly when the right property appears, and making competitive offers.
For San Francisco home sellers, conditions are about as favorable as they've been in years. Price reductions plummeted 46% year-over-year in October, hitting the lowest level in at least eight years. San Francisco was the only Bay Area county that didn't see an increase in price reductions, running counter to national trends where price cuts were up 20%.
The median house sale price jumped nearly 6% to $1.85 million, the highest since June 2022. Two-bedroom condo prices rose just over 1% to $1.26 million, but sales volume surged with a nearly 40% year-over-year increase. At the higher end, homes priced between $3 million and $5 million saw house prices up 4% and condo prices up 15%.
Conventional wisdom says spring is the best time to list, but in San Francisco that thinking might cost you. While the market typically slows from mid-November through mid-January, this year could buck that trend given current momentum. More importantly, many homes that close in the "spring market" actually went on the market during winter months.
We've written before about how selling in winter rather than spring can be strategically advantageous. Buyers often start their spring shopping in December, primed and ready to spend year-end bonuses by January 1. Sellers tend to wait, creating less competition for those who list earlier. In our competitive micro-market, too much caution might mean missing the ideal window.
Even fixer-uppers are back on the table. Properties that would have needed complete remediation before listing are now going to market as-is, with buyers willing to take on renovation projects as they think of San Francisco as a long-term home.
For homebuyers, the holiday season can offer some of the best opportunities in San Francisco real estate. Both buyers and sellers during Thanksgiving through New Year's tend to be motivated to make deals happen. You can learn more about holiday season home buying strategies and why winter can be an unexpectedly ideal time to enter the market.
While the frenzy may moderate slightly during the holidays, mid-winter is usually when buyers can negotiate most aggressively on homes that have been sitting since earlier in the year. Though given current conditions, there are fewer unsold homes than usual.
Markets can turn at any moment, and as top SF Realtors since 2002 we've seen many ups and downs. External factors like policy changes, economic uncertainty, or shifts in tech sector fortunes could impact momentum. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, while declining from its April tariff-shock peak, remains elevated by long-term standards.
That said, the fundamentals supporting San Francisco's current market look solid. The AI boom shows no signs of slowing, inventory remains tight, and buyer demand continues to outpace supply. For anyone on the fence about making a real estate move, waiting for "perfect" conditions may mean missing current opportunities.
Buying or selling in this fast-paced environment can feel overwhelming. As top San Francisco real estate agents through multiple market cycles over two decades, we know how to position our clients for success regardless of conditions.
For sellers, we know how to market your home to maximize competition and secure the highest possible price with clean terms. For buyers, we provide the patient yet assertive partnership you need to find the right home without overpaying, even in multiple-offer situations.
If you're curious about what this heated market means for your specific situation, we'd love to chat about your goals and how we can help. You can also subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed about San Francisco market trends and local news.
We've also created our Real Estate Case Studies series sharing the challenges and success stories of our clients buying and selling in competitive conditions. These real-world examples give insight into what to expect and how strategic planning makes the difference.
Whether you're considering upsizing for a growing family, downsizing an empty nest, or relocating to a different neighborhood, now is a great time to have a conversation. Contact us today to discuss your personal situation and see if we’re a good fit to help. We look forward to speaking with you!
