As headlines note the city’s population growth and recovery, what does that mean for San Francisco real estate?
After years of headlines about San Francisco's "mass exodus," the city is turning a corner. New data shows a significant rebound in population from its 2022 low, and San Francisco real estate activity has been picking up too. Within our team of top San Francisco Realtors, we're seeing how these related trends are shaping the local housing market.
The story of San Francisco's population has always been one of booms and busts. From the Gold Rush to the tech boom(s), the city has repeatedly drawn scores of hopeful newcomers looking for opportunity.
According to St. Louis FRED data, San Francisco’s population actually peaked before the COVID pandemic, at 879,676 in 2018. The population then fell from 874,826 in 2020 to a low around 815,000 in both 2021 and 2022.
Then it started climbing again... and was soon back to 827,526 as of 2024. That puts the city’s population only 6% below its 2018 record high, having regained ~1.5% in the last two years, and now growing at an increasing rate.
This historic context matters because population drives housing demand. Our team at Danielle Lazier Real Estate keeps track of these trends to provide clients with market insights beyond simple listing data.
As reported by Axios, the latest Census data reveals that international migration is powering San Francisco's comeback. While the SF metro area experienced domestic outmigration of approximately 326,600 people from April 2020 to July 2024, international migration added about 179,000 residents during the same period, making up for more than half the losses.
Natural population growth (births minus deaths) contributed another 48,000 'new arrivals'. 👶 Net result, the San Francisco metro area grew by about 1% between July 2023 and July 2024, adding about 39,000 residents.
This influx of international talent strengthens the city's workforce and creates new demand for housing across the city’s diverse San Francisco neighborhoods. Areas with strong international communities are seeing particularly robust activity.
The relationship between population and real estate tracks closely together in recent sales data:
San Francisco Closed Home Sales (House, Condo & TIC) 2015-2025:
Importantly, the initial sales decline wasn't primarily driven by population loss but by increased borrowing costs. Now, sales are recovering alongside population growth, even as mortgage rates remain elevated compared to the ‘glory days’ of 2021.
For San Francisco home sellers, this creates a much more favorable environment than even a year ago. While we're not yet at peak levels, the trajectory is positive with growing demand. And each shift lower in mortgage rates injects fresh demand into the market.
For prospective homebuyers, San Francisco's population rebound signals increasing competition. Anecdotally, working with our buyers and marketing our sellers’ listings, we’re seeing more multiple-offer scenarios than in 2023-2024.
As always, San Francisco’s diverse housing landscape means that results vary. Downtown/urban condos are still offering value to buyers, with some areas like SoMa/South of Market still in recovery and hovering around 2015 price levels. Meanwhile, single-family homes are a hot commodity all over the city, as are many condos in more suburban neighborhoods like Noe Valley, Pacific Heights, and Bernal Heights.
Mortgage rates remain a significant factor in demand, but many San Francisco homebuyers are adapting with creative financing strategies. Some are utilizing adjustable-rate mortgages with plans to refinance later, while others are making larger down payments to reduce monthly costs.
We’re also seeing a trend of AI tech workers, who may have high salaries and private stock at companies like OpenAI and Anthropic but are just starting to build their investment portfolio, selling some of their equity on secondary markets to fund their down payment.
Read more: Next-Gen SF Homebuyers: Using AI Wealth & Secondary Markets for Real Estate
And then there’s the ‘bank of Mom and Dad’. We recently wrote about the massive generational wealth transfer happening right now. Many of today’s homebuyers are younger folks with down-payment money gifted by their parents or inheritance. Others are the older generations themselves, like Baby Boomer retirees buying a condo in the city as a pied-a-terre from which to enjoy the local culture and dining while they’re in town.
Read more: The Great Wealth Transfer is Changing San Francisco Real Estate
The short story? There are many factors driving new real estate demand in San Francisco. We can’t tell the future (our crystal ball is in the shop 🔮), but buyers who act sooner may benefit from prices that haven't yet fully responded to the renewed population growth and demand.
For investors, San Francisco's population trajectory provides reasons for optimism:
As SF real estate professionals, we don’t provide investment advice but rather personal advice on making the most of your unique situation and goals. That said, these factors do suggest that San Francisco real estate may be undervalued relative to its medium-term potential.
For details on how we help San Francisco homebuyers and sellers to reach their personal goals, check out our Real Estate Case Studies for real-life client success stories.
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What can we expect for the remainder of 2025, and going forward? All indicators point to continued population growth, particularly as:
For San Francisco real estate, this means a continued, gradual strengthening of market conditions. While we don't see a return to the frenzied market of 2021, the trend line is clear. San Francisco is growing again, and its real estate market is responding.
Ready to talk about your personal real estate goals? Let’s schedule a quick consult to discuss your personal situation. Contact us today. We look forward to speaking with you!
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Looking for a trusted team to help you buy and/or sell a home in San Francisco? Reach out to us today. We'd love to help.
