San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: What to Know Before Spring 2026

The rest of the country may be cooling off, but our San Francisco market update is doing the opposite.

While national home prices are declining and new listings are shrinking, SF is seeing rising prices, fierce buyer competition, and an incredibly tight supply of homes for sale. As top San Francisco realtors with over two decades of experience in this market (and all its ups and downs), we’ll break down exactly what's happening and what it means for you heading into spring.

What's Driving San Francisco’s Real Estate Market Update Right Now?

In short: AI money.

The surge in AI startup activity across the city has created a wave of new demand from well-compensated tech workers, many of them eager to put down roots in SF. Valuations at local AI companies have been climbing fast, and that's translating directly into employee wealth and buying power. At the same time, the supply of homes for sale remains far below what the market needs.

The result is a market where homes sell quickly, bidding wars are common, and sellers are in an enviable position. And it’s not limited to single-family houses. San Francisco’s condo market, which lagged for a couple of years, is experiencing a real comeback. Rents are climbing too, driven by the influx of younger tech workers who want to live close to where the action is.

Meanwhile, national consumer confidence remains shaky and employment worries persist in other parts of the country. But those headwinds aren't showing up in the San Francisco market update numbers. As has been the case for the past couple of years, more affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in local demand.

How Tight Is San Francisco’s Housing Supply?

Extremely tight.

January saw just 440 new listings hit the market in San Francisco, a 22% drop compared to last January. And the “months of supply” metric (a measure of how long it would take to sell every home on the market at the current pace) is down a staggering 43% year over year.

Here’s a snapshot of where things stand:

• Months of supply citywide: 1.2 months (as of January 2026)
• New listings in January: 440, down 22% from January 2025
• National new listings: Down 13.3% year over year (partly due to winter storms)

To put that 1.2 months of supply in context:

• Under 3 months is generally considered a seller’s market
• 3 to 6 months is roughly neutral
• Over 6 months favors buyers

San Francisco has rarely exceeded 3 months of supply since 2012. (See the chart below.) The exceptions were the early COVID period in mid-2020 and the rate-hike adjustment period in 2023. Right now, we’re well below even the seller’s market threshold, and the spring rush is just getting started. In the SF Bay Area, the “spring market” often kicks off in February.

Note: All data referenced in this San Francisco market update is via agent-reported data from SFARMLS and Infosparks.

Months of Supply in San Francisco (All Property Types, Monthly Since 2005)