Fall Update: San Francisco Real Estate Market in October 2025

October 8, 2025

What's Happening in the San Francisco Real Estate Market Right Now?

The San Francisco real estate market is experiencing one of its most dramatic rebounds in recent years, driven primarily by the city's accelerating AI boom.

September 2025 brought impressive market activity, with overall home sales jumping 35% compared to September 2024, while luxury home sales increased by 14% year-over-year. Median sales prices have climbed compared to last year, and new-listing activity nearly doubled from August, signaling strong momentum heading into the fall selling season.

This surge comes as San Francisco rents are rising at the fastest rate in the entire country, with median asking rents for a one-bedroom unit reaching approximately $3,100 in September 2025, representing a massive 12% increase from the previous year. The vacancy rate has dropped to just 3.8%, far below the national average of 7.1%, creating a competitive environment for both renters and homebuyers.

If you’re ready to buy a home in SF, working with experienced top San Francisco Realtors like our team is a good place to start. Learn about our buyer services here.

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Are Mortgage Rates Helping or Hurting the SF Housing Market?

As of early October 2025, 30-year mortgage rates hover around 6.3%, essentially unchanged from early September but significantly lower than the 7% rates seen in early 2025. The Federal Reserve's first rate reduction of the year, a quarter-point cut in September, had minimal immediate impact on mortgage rates, though consensus suggests additional cuts are likely before year's end.

For those tracking rates closely, Mortgage News Daily offers daily updates.

A note for prospective buyers: many of our San Francisco homebuyer clients secure rates approximately 1% below headline numbers thanks to strong banking relationships and alternative financing options. If you need a trusted local lender recommendation who truly understands San Francisco financing, our team is happy to connect you with the right professionals.

Why Is Demand Surging While Inventory Shrinks?

The dynamics driving today's SF housing market are straightforward but powerful. The number of listings going into contract soared higher in September than in September 2024, while year-over-year comparisons show both active listings and price reductions have fallen. This combination of increasing demand and declining supply has created pressure across the market.

Real estate isn't monolithic, and there's certainly no single "national housing market". Even within San Francisco, each district and neighborhood operates differently. Property type matters significantly too. Single-family homes have seen consistently high demand relative to supply for years, while condos have experienced more volatility, especially since the pandemic.

Active Listings for SF Houses and Condos - long-term 3 month rolling average

How Long Does It Take to Sell a Condo in Different SF Neighborhoods?

The condo market tells an interesting story about how location dramatically affects inventory levels and sales timelines. While single-family homes remain in a seller's market with just 1.2 to 1.7 months of supply, the condo market has evolved differently across neighborhoods.

Urban centers like South of Market (SoMa) and South Beach, where many condos are concentrated, have more available listing supply compared to neighborhoods with a more residential feel like Noe Valley and Hayes Valley. Hayes Valley has become a particular hotspot for AI professionals, contributing to tighter inventory in that area. These trends are reflected in the average Days on Market and the Months of Supply for condo listings in these neighborhoods.

Days on Market for Condos in Select SF Neighborhoods - long-term 3 month rolling average

The number of condo listings active on the market increased during COVID and has since declined, though not completely back to pre-2020 levels, and the recovery hasn't happened at the same pace everywhere.

Months Supply of Condos in Select SF Neighborhoods - long-term 3 month rolling average

For buyers and sellers looking to understand specific neighborhood dynamics and listing availability, our detailed San Francisco neighborhoods page provides community information and current listings across the city.

What Do San Francisco Home Sales Price Trends Show?

Median sale prices for both single-family homes and condos have shown steady recovery and growth over the past year. Single-family homes continue to command premium prices with robust buyer competition, and the condo market has seen strong price gains recently.

Median Sales Price for SF Houses and Condos - recent 12 month rolling average

However, while prices have recovered considerably, they haven't fully retraced the mid-2022 peak that was reached just before the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation.

Median Sales Price for SF Houses and Condos - long-term 3 month rolling average

The best real estate agents in San Francisco understand how to position properties strategically in this evolving market. Since 2002, we’ve helped clients navigate all sorts of challenging transactions successfully. Read about these experiences in our San Francisco real estate case studies.

How Does SF Real Estate Market Seasonality Affect Buying and Selling Timing?

Fall represents the second-busiest season for San Francisco real estate sales, following the spring market. The typical pattern includes a spring rush, a summer lull for vacations and breaks, then a second wind in fall before holiday season slowdowns begin in mid-November. That said, San Francisco real estate is a year-round market thanks to consistently pleasant weather and strong underlying demand for well-priced, well-presented properties.

The most important consideration remains personal timing. When is the right moment for your family, career, finances, and long-term plans? However, if you have complete flexibility, understanding seasonal patterns can provide strategic advantages.

Interestingly, the "best" times to buy and sell aren't necessarily what most people expect. For buyers, the holiday season offers specific benefits including less competition as many pause their search, and more motivated sellers willing to negotiate while others have withdrawn listings to wait for spring.

Learn more: Holiday Season Home Buying: San Francisco's Best-Kept Real Estate Secret

For sellers, some of the year's best-performing sales happen before the spring rush, typically January through March rather than April through June. This occurs because buyers emerge after New Years ready to spend bonuses and fulfill resolutions, while sellers tend to "wait and see" how spring develops. Listing your home before other sellers means you can capture early buyer enthusiasm. Our seller services page provides more information about strategic timing and preparation.

Learn more: Best Time to Sell a Home in SF? Try Winter, Not Spring

Timing Aside, What Else Matters?

Strategic pricing and presentation outweigh calendar timing every time. Cleaning, staging, smart improvements like fresh paint, and enhanced curb appeal make tremendous differences. For buyers, quality representation with an expert agent who can identify the right homes and neighborhoods for your needs, then structure competitive offers without overpaying, matters far more than the season.

Your two biggest considerations, buying or selling, should be: 1) Is the timing right for your personal situation? and 2) What kind of representation will guide and support you through the process? Everything else follows from there.

How Is AI Wealth Reshaping San Francisco Real Estate?

The artificial intelligence boom has become the dominant force driving San Francisco's housing resurgence. Tech stocks have surged on AI investment, and liquidity events at local AI companies like OpenAI's massive tender offer allowing employees to sell company shares at a $500 billion valuation have left real estate agents optimistic about sustained demand.

All this investment has led to a big surge in demand, with some properties that previously received no offers now fielding multiple bids. The city is "flush with cash right now, and there's not enough inventory to keep up with it," according to market analysts. AI professionals are touring everything from $2 million condos to $20 million houses, and this wealth effect will continue driving demand.

More homes sold above $20 million in San Francisco last year than ever before, a trend attributed largely to AI's rise. (As the SF Chronicle put it, “AI wealth has created a new dynamic in S.F. real estate: Not enough mansions”.) San Francisco's "pending ratio," a comparison of demand versus supply, leapt higher by 15 percentage points year-over-year, an enormous increase. Most analysts directly attribute these large market shifts to the rapidly accelerating AI startup boom.

Many AI industry workers have been selling stock in privately held companies like OpenAI and Anthropic on secondary markets to fund down payments on San Francisco homes. For anyone interested in learning more about this trend, our SF real estate newsletter regularly covers AI's impact on the SF real estate market along with local news and other informative updates. Sign up for free - we never share or sell your information. Only the good stuff!

Explore AI and SF real estate on our blog:

What About Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility?

While Wall Street reaches new all-time highs, some economic indicators raise questions. The dollar has fallen 10% while gold has risen 50% year-to-date. Consumer confidence nationally remains relatively low, with significant concerns about personal finances, employment, and inflation, though affluent consumers deeply invested in stock markets feel less concerned than low and middle-income segments.

Real estate represents a "sticky" asset class that doesn't move as wildly up and down as stock markets. It's a precious, limited resource, particularly relevant on San Francisco's 7x7-mile peninsula, making it a solid way to diversify and safeguard investments during uncertain and inflationary times.

Further reading in the news:

Where is the Fall Real Estate Market Headed?

October traditionally represents the peak month for luxury home sales in San Francisco, and early indicators suggest 2025 will follow that pattern with strong activity already underway. The market data will provide further insight into the autumn selling season before activity typically begins slowing down in November for the mid-winter holidays.

Inflation has continued ticking up slightly while stock markets hit new all-time highs. The Federal Reserve is expected to make additional rate cuts before year's end, which could provide further support to housing market activity, though the direct impact on mortgage rates remains uncertain.

The combination of robust demand, limited inventory, rising prices, and strong sales activity positions San Francisco as one of the strongest real estate markets in the entire Bay Area. October sales data will confirm whether this momentum carries through the remainder of the fall season.

Ready to Make Your Move in the San Francisco Real Estate Market?

Whether you're considering buying, selling, or both, having knowledgeable guidance makes all the difference in San Francisco real estate. As top SF Realtors since 2002, our team has over 500 five-star reviews for our knowledge of neighborhood trends, strategic pricing and negotiations, and finding market opportunities to help our clients achieve real estate goals.

If you’d like to learn more about how we can assist with your specific situation, contact us today for a quick Zoom consultation to see if we’re a good fit. We look forward to speaking with you!

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Contact us today for a complimentary consultation. Whether you’re looking for luxury homes for sale or need help listing your exclusive property, our top-rated realtors are here to help. Find your dream home or achieve your sales goals with the best real estate agents!

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