The San Francisco turnaround is getting more and more real. After years of headlines about doom loops and exodus migration, the city feels like it’s turning a page in 2025.
Crime has dropped to a 23-year low. Office leasing just hit its highest level in six years. The tent count fell to the lowest level since records began. These are just a few of the signs that San Francisco is back on track.
Let's start with what matters most to homebuyers and investors, safety and livability. As reported by The Telegraph, car break-ins fell by 50% last year in 2024 to a 22-year low. Overall crime fell 28% in 2024. Walk through areas like UN Plaza in the Civic Center, and you'll see ping-pong tables where tent encampments used to be.
The transformation in San Francisco extends beyond crime reduction. Local organizations like Streets For All San Francisco (formerly KidSafe SF) have spent four hard years creating safer, more walkable and enjoyable neighborhoods. They made JFK Promenade permanent. Established 16 Slow Streets. Transformed the Great Highway into the new Sunset Dunes oceanfront park. When streets are safe for kids, they're safe for everyone, and that makes neighborhoods more livable and pedestrian-friendly.
For our team of top SF Realtors since 2002 working with buyers and sellers, these safety and livability improvements translate directly into homebuyer confidence. Clients who were hesitant to consider certain neighborhoods (or maybe buying at all) are more actively exploring their options across the city.
Commercial real estate in San Francisco is also experiencing its most significant turnaround in years. Companies like Salesforce now require employees to work at least four days a week in the office. Gap Inc. announced a return to five-day office weeks (among many other companies in SF). But however you feel about RTO mandates, the real story in commercial leasing is artificial intelligence.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes San Francisco is back. "Just about everybody evacuated San Francisco," he said during a recent podcast interview. "Now it's thriving again. It's all because of AI." Huang's company Nvidia is reportedly hunting for roughly 30,000 square feet of high-end sales office space in San Francisco.
Recent data backs up the excitement. AI companies have leased over 5 million square feet in San Francisco over the past five years. They're projected to take an additional 16 million square feet between now and 2030, or roughly 2.7 million square feet annually. This growth could cut the city's office vacancy rate from 35.8% to less than 18% by 2030.
Following this trend is OpenAI's expansion to nearly 1 million square feet across three buildings in SF. And when workers return to downtown, they need places to live. That demand directly benefits residential real estate across San Francisco neighborhoods.
The San Francisco housing market turnaround reflects this broader recovery. While macroeconomic pressures (tariffs, uncertainty, etc.) are keeping a lid on home sales to a degree, the latest spring 2025 data reveals some positive trends for both buyers and sellers.
The median home sale price in San Francisco increased by 4% annually during the March-May period, per agent-reported MLS data. Condos, which have been (and continue to be) the slower market segment, actually outperformed with 5.7% growth compared to 4.3% for houses. Condos are also selling faster - the median days-on-market dropped to 26 days, a 13.3% annual decrease.
The supply of homes for sale in San Francisco is also telling. Houses are at just 1.8 months of inventory compared to 3.9 months for condos. But supply is tightening across both segments, down 14% for houses and 20% for condos year-over-year as of May 2025.
The biggest value opportunities remain in urban condo markets like South of Market (SoMa) and South Beach, where roughly six months of supply still exists. ('Months of supply' compares the current number of homes on the market against the current rate of sales - ie. how long would it take for all existing supply to sell if there were no new listings?) However, even these markets are tightening. SoMa condo supply dropped 30% year-over-year in May. Meanwhile, condos in more suburban neighborhoods like Noe Valley show just 1.4 months of supply, indicating it's still solidly a seller's market.
None of this happened by accident. Credit goes to organizations like Neighbors for a Better San Francisco (a central focus of The Telegraph's article) and countless local residents who demanded change.
We also appreciate the hard work of Streets For All San Francisco and their four-year campaign to create safer, more livable streets.
The results have been impressive. New Mayor Daniel Lurie, who took office in January 2025, brings a pro-business approach that has generally been celebrated. "People wanted to count us out, and I think that was a bad bet," Lurie said. "We're seeing all of this because the ecosystem is better here in San Francisco than anywhere else in the world."
Current market conditions in SF are creating opportunities across price points and property types. The AI boom adds demand - tech workers with great compensation packages need housing. Decreasing supply and increasing demand create will upward pressure on prices, although there are still macroeconomic concerns out of any buyer/seller/SF Realtor's control.
For real-life stories of San Francisco homebuyers and sellers, check out our Real Estate Case Studies. You might find some inspiration from our past clients and how we helped them overcome their unique challenges.
The San Francisco turnaround momentum is building. Knock on wood, the worst appears behind us, and many of the best opportunities may still be ahead.
Current trends suggest now is a good time to consider your options. The combination of improved safety, a growing workforce, AI/tech investment, and gradually tightening supply creates a compelling case for San Francisco real estate. Ultimately, it's all down to your goals and personal situation. There's no 'right time' except when it's right for you.
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